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JFO tells Appropriations Vermont population at 648,493; preliminary 2025 shows further loss, raising revenue concerns
Summary
On April 22, the House Appropriations Committee heard Joint Fiscal Office analyst Ed Barnett report Vermont’s estimated population was 648,493 on 07/01/2024, with a 2024 decline and preliminary 2025 loss of ~1,800 people; members discussed drivers (births, deaths, migration), aging cohorts and tax implications.
On April 22, 2026, the House Appropriations Committee received a demographic briefing from Ed Barnett of the Joint Fiscal Office, who presented JFO estimates showing Vermont’s population at 648,493 as of July 1, 2024 and described recent downward movement in the state’s headcount.
Barnett summarized headline changes in the post‑pandemic era, saying “after our post pandemic swell of 4,100 people between 2020 and 2021…in 2024, population decreased by 215 people” and adding that the figures are estimates. He told the committee the preliminary 2025 update shows Vermont lost “about 1,800 people approximately” between 2024 and 2025, which narrows the five‑year net increase since 2020 to roughly 1,500 people.
The presentation focused on the four components the Census Bureau uses to decompose population change: births, deaths, international migration and domestic migration. Barnett emphasized that Vermont’s natural change (births minus deaths) was negative in recent years, meaning deaths exceeded births, and that both international and domestic migration contributed importantly to the pandemic‑era rise and the more recent shift.
The committee chair — identified in the transcript only by role — said she was skeptical of the 2020 decennial census at small geographic levels and asked whether other states show similar anomalies. Barnett cautioned that annual estimates come from the American Community Survey and related inputs and that “there’s quite a bit of noise, a large margin of error on those estimates,” particularly at town and county levels.
Barnett walked members through age‑structure data and a single‑year‑of‑age chart that highlights cohort effects. He reported the largest percentage increase between 2020 and 2024 occurred in the 65–79 age cohort — about 13,500 people, or more than 13% — and said that shift has implications for state revenues and services. “Income tax revenue may decline,” he said, noting older households tend to shift spending toward services such as health care that are not subject to sales tax in Vermont.
Members asked about methodology, county‑level variation and whether pandemic‑era in‑migration was durable. Barnett said the Census Bureau publishes methodological documentation and that JFO will publish an updated issue brief incorporating 07/01/2025 data over the summer and fall. He also cited national trends in international migration, saying net international migration declined nationally from about 2.7 million in 2024 to roughly 1.3 million in 2025 and is projected to be lower in 2026 — changes that can affect Vermont’s totals.
The committee discussed policy relevance, including investments that may make Vermont more attractive to new residents (broadband, housing, health care and local amenities) and the state plan on aging. The session closed with the chair thanking Barnett and a reminder that the committee will consider S173 (per diems) at its next meeting.
The Joint Fiscal Office issue brief and JFO datasets will be available as follow‑up; Barnett offered to share additional charts and underlying files.
