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Gilroy Unified projects steady enrollment above 10,000 for next five years, warns of declines by 2031
Summary
An outside demographer presented 10‑year enrollment projections showing short‑term growth above 10,000 students driven by upcoming housing; staff recommended no school closures now but warned that cohort declines and slower births could force difficult decisions around 2031–2032.
A consultant from PowerSchool (Decision Insight) told the Gilroy Unified School District board that enrollment is expected to remain above 10,000 students over the next five years but could enter a sustained decline beginning around 2031.
The presenter said the district’s 10‑year projections incorporate planned housing growth — roughly 1,200 new dwelling units identified in the report — and that those units would generate an estimated 520 K–12 students over time. “For every two new single‑family homes…we get one GUSD student,” the presenter explained during the board’s discussion of…
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