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District projects declining enrollment; staff to hire demographer and estimate charter funding impacts
Summary
Staff presented cohort-survival projections showing a drop from about 5,981 students to roughly 5,716 and 5,578 in coming years; the district will engage a demographer and Guzman agreed to estimate local funding loss tied to charter ADA.
Rafael Guzman presented the district’s enrollment and staffing projection methodology and the results that will inform budgeting. He said the district’s cohort-survival model projects enrollment at about 5,981 students in the current year, falling to approximately 5,716 and then 5,578 in subsequent years.
Why it matters: LCFF revenue is tied to average daily attendance and enrollment; falling student counts reduce state…
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