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District projects declining enrollment; staff to hire demographer and estimate charter funding impacts
Summary
Staff presented cohort-survival projections showing a drop from about 5,981 students to roughly 5,716 and 5,578 in coming years; the district will engage a demographer and Guzman agreed to estimate local funding loss tied to charter ADA.
Rafael Guzman presented the district’s enrollment and staffing projection methodology and the results that will inform budgeting. He said the district’s cohort-survival model projects enrollment at about 5,981 students in the current year, falling to approximately 5,716 and then 5,578 in subsequent years.
Why it matters: LCFF revenue is tied to average daily attendance and enrollment; falling student counts reduce state funding and affect staffing and program planning. Committee members asked staff to quantify the funding impact of charter schools on students who live in Inglewood.
Details of the presentation: Guzman described the internal cohort-survival projection the district uses (one baseline projection focused on the next one to three years) and contrasted it with independent demographer studies that model multiple scenarios (low/middle/high) using live birth rates, housing and migration data. He said the district will engage a demographer soon to supplement internal projections and to inform the second interim report.
Charter impact discussion: Committee members requested an analysis of funding lost to charter schools for students residing in Inglewood. Guzman cited a recent P-1 ADA report showing 1,624 ADA associated with independent charters and noted a rough LCFF funding figure of about $16,000 per funded student; he described this as an initial, conservative estimate and offered to return with a refined calculation tailored to Inglewood residents.
Next steps: Staff will engage a demographer and return with a demographic report and a charter-impact estimate focused on students who live in Inglewood and the district’s specific LCFF calculations. No policy action was taken at the meeting.
