UNC demographer: Brunswick County enrollment to about 19,413 by 2035–36; board sees bond rationale

Brunswick County Schools officials invited Nathan Dollar, director of Carolina Demography at UNC Chapel Hill, to present the district's updated enrollment forecast and development survey that feed long‑range facilities planning.

Dollar said the county remains fast‑growing and the district models student yield from tracked residential developments. "We're forecasting you to have approximately 19,413 students out to 2035–36," he told the board, noting the projection is sensitive to migration and the Census Bureau's forthcoming county estimates.

He explained the forecast process: the demography team uses historical enrollment trends, school capacity and attendance zones, development ground‑truthing, market‑share analysis (public, private, charter, homeschool) and state Office of State Budget and Management population controls. He warned that even though Brunswick's population growth is concentrated in people 65 and older, the county's 5–17 population is also growing and will drive school seat demand.

Dollar and board members discussed how the forecast drives the district's bond proposal. A board member summarized the implications: "Over 95% of that bond will go towards building an elementary school and a high school," citing the district's need to add elementary seats in the North‑Central region and additional high‑school capacity as the decade progresses.

Board members asked for the demographer's county‑specific updates when new Census estimates arrive; staff said the district would post updated slides and incorporate state data when available.

The presentation and forecast comparison were used by the board as context for consent agenda items and capital planning that followed.