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Carolina Demography forecasts continued enrollment decline for CHCCS, adds housing growth adjustment
Summary
Carolina Demography presented a final student-membership forecast showing a baseline decline in Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools, with an adjustment for 42 planned developments that reduces the projected 10-year decline by roughly 566 students; the district still faces multi-year net losses concentrated in secondary grades.
Dr. Nathan Dollar of Carolina Demography presented the district’s finalized student-membership forecast and explained key methodology and recent adjustments.
The baseline model, using historical principal monthly reports and grade-progression ratios, forecasts a decline of about 1,636 students over the next 10 years. After mapping 42 non‑age‑restricted residential developments in the district’s…
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