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Attribution science links extreme heat to crop disruption; experts warn of price impacts
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Summary
Climate Central and other witnesses told senators that attribution science shows warming has already increased damaging heat days in key coffee and cocoa regions, which, along with drought, can reduce yields and push up consumer prices for commodities such as coffee and beef.
Scientists told the Senate committee that attribution tools can show how much climate change has altered the probability and severity of extreme weather events and, in turn, how those changes affect food production and prices.
Dr. Andrew Pershing, chief program officer at Climate Central, described analyses showing that major coffee‑growing regions that together produce about 97% of the world's coffee have experienced roughly 47 additional days per year above an 86°F (30°C) threshold in recent years. "When their crops suffer, the cost for your morning coffee goes up," Pershing said, and he added that similar attribution work for cocoa indicates significant increases in dangerously hot days in West Africa.
Pershing and panelists also discussed drought trends: Pershing cited USDA reporting that drought from 2020 through 2023 in the Great Plains contributed to herd reductions that helped drive beef prices higher. He said attribution science is stronger for physical hazards (temperature, precipitation, storms) and that translating hazard attribution into economic cost for specific crops can be challenging but is feasible for threshold‑sensitive commodities.
Senators used these findings to question what policy steps could shore up food system resilience; witnesses recommended broader public understanding, targeted adaptation investments and integrating climate risk into agricultural planning.
The committee did not vote on legislation following the testimony.
