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Consultant warns enrollment will keep declining; 1,500 new housing units could add about 400 students
Summary
SchoolWorks told the Ventura Unified board that statewide birth declines have reduced kindergarten cohorts and the district has lost about 3,000 students in a decade; the firm projected roughly 1,500 new housing units over six years could add 400–450 students and factored those numbers into school-closure planning.
Ken Reynolds, president of SchoolWorks, told the Ventura Unified board that demographic trends and housing projections point to continued enrollment decline across the district — and that the decline will inform any potential school-closure decisions.
Reynolds said statewide births have fallen from roughly 600,000 per year to about 400,000, a drop that he described as “one-third” and one that strongly correlates with smaller kindergarten cohorts. Using births, migration and planned housing, SchoolWorks’ model projects about 1,500 housing units in the district over the next six years. At an estimated student yield of 0.275 students per new housing unit, Reynolds said the district could expect roughly 400–450 additional students from those developments.
"We start with birth data because those are our future students," Reynolds said in his presentation. He added that the firm uses historical enrollment patterns, inter-district transfers and developer schedules to create school-by-school estimates.
Trustees asked how the projections account for transfers, charter enrollment and program choices. Reynolds said his model already factors net transfers and program participation; he also recommended closer tracking of interdistrict transfers tied to programmatic draws, such as dual-immersion or other specialized offerings.
The board directed staff to use the demographic study as an evidentiary basis for the school-closure advisory committee and to publish maps and school-by-school grade-level projections for the public. Staff said these projections will be one of several factors — along with facilities condition, bond investments and student-support programs — used by the committee over a multi-meeting public process that begins March 19.
