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Demographer: Carlsbad Unified enrollment to stabilize after modest decline; TK growth could offset some losses
Summary
King Consulting presented updated projections showing modest districtwide declines driven by cohort replacement and fewer local births; trustees asked staff to use the projections to right‑size campuses and to return with site‑by‑site analyses.
Rob Murray of King Consulting told trustees the long‑term trend in Carlsbad Unified is a modest enrollment decline driven primarily by cohort replacement — fewer births in recent years translating into smaller incoming kindergarten classes — but he added the district’s decline is milder than in many parts of California.
Murray said the district’s historical pattern showed growth concentrated in high‑school grades while elementary intake was…
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