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Consultants: declining birth cohorts and small pipeline mean careful prioritization for master facilities plan
Summary
Consultants told the board that shrinking kindergarten birth cohorts, modest student yield from tracked housing projects and TK expansion will shrink elementary enrollment in coming years, prompting a recommendation to re‑prioritize remaining Measure T projects and consider TK configuration and facility flexibility.
Consultants and district staff presented an initial update to the 2019 Master Facility Plan and a demographic study on April 30, saying enrollment trends and the housing pipeline require careful prioritization of remaining Measure T funds.
"The single biggest thing we're really looking at is the size of that incoming kindergarten cohort," Rob Murray, the consultant who led demographic analysis, told the board. He showed that recent kindergarten cohorts have dropped below 500, that births from 2012–2020 produced the cohorts now in middle school, and that the five lowest birth years of the 21st century coincide with the cohorts moving into the district in the near term.
CBO Rebecca Westover and consultants said priority‑1 Measure T projects (safety, HVAC, roofing, window and mechanical work)…
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