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Poll shows broad support for Scottsdale USD bond concept; price sensitivity among nonparents could shape campaign
Summary
Outside pollster Noble Predictive Insights told the Scottsdale Unified School District board that a bond concept tests strongly with likely voters (about 70% concept approval) and that messaging emphasizing property values and school safety boosts support; polling (n=408 likely voters) found 67% support at $350M and 54% at $475M with 16% undecided.
Mike Noble of Noble Predictive Insights presented the results of a feasibility survey the district commissioned, saying the firm interviewed 408 likely Scottsdale voters and used mixed online and phone methods.
The research found broad agreement that "strong public schools help protect and increase property values," a message that tested at about 93% agreement across the sample and across partisan groups, Noble said. He reported top-line concept approval near 70% and noted that voters' support remains generally resilient when details are added, but cost creates a persuasion battlefield: "350 million is the safe option, but 475 million is not out of reach," Noble said, reporting 67% support at the $350 million level and 54% at $475 million (30% opposed and 16% undecided at the higher amount).
Noble told the board that parents and Democrats comprised the campaign's strongest base—parents were as high as mid-70s in support at higher price points—while nonparents, independents and older voters were more persuadable and required targeted messaging about relevance and value. He recommended emphasizing safety, technology and modern facilities and suggested a five-year series of sales for timing.
Board members asked for the exact survey questions and methodology; Noble said the questionnaire can be shared and reiterated that the sample was limited to likely voters to better reflect turnout for a midterm-year bond election.
Why it matters: The poll provides the board with voter-tested language and price sensitivity that staff and any campaign partners will likely use to craft the ballot wording, public information pamphlet and outreach strategy ahead of the May 12 packet review and a possible November election.
