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Consultant forecast projects rapid growth for La Plata; council weighs police pension (LEOPS) costs
Summary
Baker Tilly told the council La Plata's population and property tax base could double over coming years; council asked detailed questions about timing, water constraints and staffing. Council moved forward state resolutions to enroll officers in LEOPS despite some fiscal reservations.
A Baker Tilly financial forecast presented to the La Plata Town Council on April 28 projected rapid population and property‑tax base growth tied to the town’s development pipeline but warned that capital needs could erode operating surpluses without careful planning.
Consultant Matt Stark told the council the town’s baseline population (about 12,000) could roughly double by the early‑to‑mid‑2030s based on development assumptions used in the town’s water study and planning pipeline. Stark stressed that scenario forecasts assume the town’s current levy rate and set out sample staffing and capital scenarios: staff needs rising from roughly 67 full‑time equivalents today to about 124 FTEs by 2036, and an illustrative $50 million in capital needs that could add nearly $4 million per year in debt service if financed.
"This is our best estimate with what we've got in terms of your development patterns," Stark said, adding caveats about water allocation timing and development phasing.
Council questions focused on data sources, the mix of residential vs. nonresidential development, timing of growth (spread vs. spikes tied to water allocation), assumptions for FTEs per 1,000 residents, and sensitivity to state intergovernmental revenues (including highway user revenues). Stark said the forecast used the town’s water plan pipeline categories (short‑term 'written in ink', intermediate approvals, and conceptual projects) and conservative inflation/assumption inputs.
Following the forecast, council considered two state‑prepared resolutions to pick up mandatory employee contributions and transfer eligible police officers into the Maryland Law Enforcement Officers’ Pension System (LEOPS). Town Manager Chuck Stevens said the resolutions were required by state law and were drafted by the state; staff did not edit the language.
Council debate acknowledged both the need to provide competitive benefits for recruitment and retention and concerns about long‑term pension costs. Mayor James said she favored an enhanced 457 plan rather than LEOPS; other members noted the current budget can absorb the costs and that LEOPS compares favorably with previously budgeted pension or enhanced retirement options. By voice vote the council moved both resolutions forward for adoption.
Budget context: FY2027 and fees
Separately, staff presented the proposed FY2027 financial plan and a fee schedule that leaves the town's real property tax rate unchanged at $0.35 per $100 of assessed value. Staff recommended adopting the FY2027 budget, tax rate and updated fee schedule with an effective date of July 1, 2026. Council indicated willingness to make limited line‑item adjustments (for example, a revised scope and lower cost for a historic firehouse rehab) before a second reading on May 12.
What to watch
Key near‑term items include the town’s negotiations with Charles County on supplemental water allocations, final FY2027 adoption at second reading, and the administrative steps required to enroll officers in LEOPS if the council adopts the resolutions. Staff said presentation slides and forecasting models will be included in the public packet.
"If you're not seeing the development come in as currently scheduled, you'll also see your service demands growing slower," Stark said. "You have a lot of control over your hiring."
