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Merced City School District told it lost 256 students; trustees press consultants on boundary decisions
Summary
SchoolWorks presented demographic modeling showing the district was 256 students below projections this year and projects another drop; trustees asked whether recent boundary changes caused the loss and pressed staff on potential ADA funding impacts and mitigation steps.
Ken Reynolds, a consultant from SchoolWorks, told the Merced City School District Board on Jan. 27 that enrollment projections for 2025–26 show a notable decline, and that the district is “down 256 this year compared to what we projected,” a shortfall trustees said could materially affect funding tied to average daily attendance (ADA).
The SchoolWorks presentation reviewed neighborhood maps, cohort‑based projections and planned housing developments, and projected a net decline of roughly 115 students next year. Reynolds said the model factors births, historic mobility, transfer choices and planned new housing; he cautioned that multiple forces — a soft housing market, parent…
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