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Texas Tech study: early absences predict chronic absenteeism in Ector County ISD; effective teachers cut risk
Summary
Texas Tech researchers told the board Phase 1 findings: chronic absenteeism peaked near 30% in 2022 and remains high; attendance in the first six weeks strongly predicts yearlong chronic absence, and assignment to a TIA master teacher was associated with a roughly 20 percentage-point lower risk of chronic absence.
Representatives from Texas Tech presented Phase 1 of a research-practice partnership with Ector County ISD at the boards May 13 workshop, reporting that chronic absenteeism rose sharply after the pandemic and remains elevated.
Jacob Perksy of Texas Tech summarized the quantitative findings: the districts chronic absenteeism rate peaked around 30% in 2022 and was about 28% in 2023. "If we look at our students who were even one to two days missing school, those students are 18% likely to be chronically absent by the end of the year," Perksy said, noting the models predictive value when early attendance is known. He added that elementary students missing six to nine days in the first six weeks had roughly a 65% chance of being chronically absent by yearend.
The researchers highlighted teacher effects. Perksy said placement with a TIA master teacher corresponded to a 20 percentage-point reduction in the likelihood of chronic absenteeism compared with assignment to an average teacher, a finding the team said they can isolate after adjusting for student background and prior outcomes.
Researchers described methods that combined more than 30 on-campus interviews (principals, teachers, attendance clerks) across 13 campuses and district-level daily attendance and demographic data. Qualitative themes included the value of the Community Outreach Center, logistical barriers such as transportation and walking-route safety, and local economic factors (oil-and-gas employment and high mobility) that can reduce studentsincentives to attend.
Phase 2 will add family and student voices through surveys and interviews, dig more deeply into practices used by high-performing teachers and campuses, and compare bright spots across districts with similar demographics. Researchers recommended the district consider targeted interventions that pair at-risk students with highly effective teachers and continue to invest in teacher quality.
Trustees asked about realistic attendance targets; the researchers said typical daily attendance averages nationally approach 95% and that pre-pandemic chronic-absence rates were often 1215%. Board members emphasized including student and parent perspectives in the next phase before adopting interventions.
