Budget office warns of sharp slowdown in property‑tax growth, flags $145M five‑year gap without mitigation

Bexar County budget staff told commissioners on April 28 that preliminary April appraisal district data show property‑tax assessed‑value growth for the coming fiscal year is unusually low — under 1% in the initial report — and that protest activity could reduce the final tax roll materially.

Tanya Gaetan, the county budget director, said when the county models a $6 billion reduction to the April value due to expected protests, the five‑year forecast shifts from a modest projected shortfall to an estimated roughly $145 million cumulative gap by fiscal 2029. The staff presentation noted roughly $9 billion of additional exemptions and a slowdown in new‑construction valuation growth compared with previous years.

County Manager and budget officials said the combination of slower ad valorem growth and the expiration of one‑time funding streams (for example ARPA dollars supporting program expansions) will require mitigation early in the upcoming budget cycle. Potential options staff outlined included freezing civilian vacancy hiring, delaying capital projects, not providing a cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) or reducing new program additions. Staff emphasized these options would be explored and quantified so commissioners could weigh tradeoffs ahead of adopting the FY2027 budget.

Commissioners and staff discussed the need to preserve operating reserves while avoiding forced, across‑the‑board layoffs. The county manager noted prior, early corrective steps have helped the county avoid more severe measures in past downturns.

Budget staff said they will continue to monitor monthly appraisal updates and provide revised forecasts; the final certified appraisal roll and protest outcomes — typically available in July — will determine the final revenue picture for the FY2027 budget.