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CSA presentation warns Maricopa County faces sustained budget pressure from long-term care and court costs
Summary
At the May 4 informal meeting, the County Supervisors Association of Arizona briefed the Maricopa County Board on revenue constraints, rising long-term care costs (about 92% growth over 10 years), limits on county revenue flexibility, and lingering cost shifts from prior state policy that continue to affect county budgets.
The County Supervisors Association of Arizona (CSA) told the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors on Monday that counties face mounting fiscal pressure driven primarily by court and long-term-care costs and limited revenue flexibility.
Craig Sullivan, speaking for CSA, said counties typically lag the revenue performance of the state and municipalities because counties do not receive income tax sharing and rely heavily on property taxes. "Counties are property tax reliant," Sullivan said, adding that counties lack the same revenue toggles available to other jurisdictions.
Sullivan highlighted two major cost drivers: the state court system and the long-term-care health system. He told the board long-term-care costs in Maricopa County have grown "by 92%" over the last decade and that that spending accounts for a large share of the county property-tax burden. Sullivan also warned of policy and forecast risk, citing slower job growth, global uncertainty and possible federal/state health policy changes — he referenced "HR 1" and reductions in Medicaid resources as potential pressures.
Sullivan said CSA monitors the legislature closely; the association reported more than 2,000 bills were introduced this session with roughly 247 still active, some of which could affect county operations or resources. He said CSA has pushed state lawmakers to consider shifting certain cost growth to the state and has engaged with JLBC to correct modeling issues — noting an identified JLBC ALTEX model miscalculation that CSA helped correct, which Sullivan said will save Maricopa County more than $1,000,000.
Board members pressed Sullivan on historical cost shifts to counties. Sullivan said counties worked for years to undo earlier agency-level cost shifts and that one remaining county obligation involved payments for the State Department of Juvenile Corrections; he said that fee has a sunset scheduled beginning in fiscal year '29. He also described the long recovery counties experienced after the 2008–09 downturn when roughly $500,000,000 in state expenses shifted to counties, creating multiyear budget drag.
Supervisor Thomas Galvin asked how CSA views Maricopa County’s own budget management; Sullivan responded that, by several efficiency metrics, Maricopa County performs well and has leveraged economies of scale compared with similarly sized counties. Supervisor Stewart asked whether inflation is built into revenue projections and how previous property-tax declines were managed; Sullivan said that outcomes depend on state choices and that counties often must manage through policy-driven shocks.
After the presentation and questions, the chair recessed the informal meeting and Vice Chair Lesko moved to go into executive session; the motion was seconded and approved by voice vote. The board recessed to the Sullivan Room for the executive session.
The presentation underscored CSA's message that counties are susceptible to state-level policy shifts and demographic pressures and that Maricopa County — despite relative efficiency — must monitor pension, health-care and judicial cost trends as the legislature finishes its session.
