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Commission receives economic study of Tustin industrial areas; report shows zones drive job growth and significant city revenue
Summary
An EPS economic study presented to the Tustin Planning Commission found the two industrial study zones account for a major share of recent job growth and produce a large portion of city property and sales tax revenue; staff will use the study to inform an upcoming general plan update.
The Planning Commission on April 28 received and filed an economic study of key industrial areas in Tustin, presented by Thomas Gonzales of Economic & Planning Systems (EPS). Director Alexa Smittle said the study is intended to inform a comprehensive general‑plan update planned for early next year.
Gonzales said the study evaluated two study zones — a West Zone near the 55 Freeway and a East Zone along the Irvine border — using CoStar, JobsEQ, OnTheMap and interviews with local brokers and employers. He reported the study zones accounted for about two‑thirds of the city’s job growth from 2013–2023 and concentrated higher‑wage employment in administrative/support services, manufacturing and professional services. “These areas are producing a significant portion of city jobs and recent job growth,” Gonzales said.
On real estate, Gonzales said inventory has been relatively steady from 2016–2026 while vacancy has fluctuated; recent vacancy increases reflect the impact of individual large buildings coming to market and broader competitive supply from other regions. He noted that industrial and flex product in Tustin can be attractive to employers seeking proximity to a skilled workforce and nearby amenities.
A fiscal model compared a hypothetical 10‑acre site in existing condition to redevelopment scenarios. Gonzales said industrial redevelopment to office/R&D or light manufacturing generally increases net contribution to the city’s general fund versus existing uses; townhome‑style residential could increase net revenue; whereas a model of 100% market‑rate multifamily rental could slightly reduce net contribution under the study’s assumptions. He cautioned results are sensitive to assumptions such as assessed values, service costs and Proposition 13 effects.
Gonzales also reviewed nearby case studies in Irvine and Santa Ana where long‑term planning and infrastructure investment enabled conversion of some industrial parcels to mixed or residential uses. He warned converting industrial land can constrain adjacent industrial operations and that state laws (AB 98 and SB 415) may impose design requirements on logistics facilities near residences, schools or parks.
Commissioners asked about the study’s assumptions (Gonzales said the fiscal numbers are annual) and how inclusion of affordable housing would change results (it would lower net contributions because of lower rents and assessed values). Staff said the study will be shared with City Council and will help structure discussions for the upcoming general‑plan update.
The commission took no regulatory action other than receiving and filing the report. Gonzales and staff said the study is a point‑in‑time analysis intended to inform but not dictate future land‑use decisions.
