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Study urges Casper to secure senior water rights, boost monitoring as climate models tighten supply
Summary
Regional water consultants told the council the Central system holds about 58,407 acre‑feet of "paper" water but modeling shows drought and growth could create deficits later this decade; near‑term recommendations include optimizing current rights, pursuing senior (pre‑1923) rights, and increasing Pathfinder modification water.
A regional water resources study presented to the Casper City Council recommended several near‑term steps to strengthen the city’s water portfolio, including targeting senior water rights purchases and increasing Pathfinder modification project (PMP) water, as climate models and population scenarios suggest supply stress could appear by the 2030s under some cases.
Consultants said the Central water board’s paper portfolio totals roughly "58,407 acre‑feet of water," while recent production averages were about 11,600 acre‑feet per year, with approximately 8,000 acre‑feet from groundwater and 3,600 acre‑feet from surface sources. Presenters modeled a range of climate and population scenarios — a 0.4% “normal” growth, a 1.3% high‑normal case and an extreme “boom” case — and advised planning on a mid‑range assumption while preparing for drier outcomes.
The study flagged that, under a prolonged drought and higher growth, the system could reach critical deficits in the mid‑2030s to 2040s in some scenarios. Presenters recommended operational measures (better tracking and optimization of rights), purchases of higher‑priority (pre‑1923) rights when available, and use of Pathfinder modification project water as an expedient supply option. Regional Water staff said they are pursuing a contract to increase Pathfinder modification water from about 2,000 to 4,000 acre‑feet.
Councilors asked about Amoco/Texaco rights and the availability of senior rights on the market; staff said senior rights are rarely marketed — they found only a handful of sales in three decades — and recommended a mix of opportunistic acquisitions and partnerships with nearby users. On public measures, staff said there were no mandatory outdoor‑use restrictions at present, but they are monitoring production weekly against five‑year averages and preparing public messaging urging residents to use outdoor water responsibly.
The study’s authors emphasized that acquisitions and operational changes would require funding and careful legal review; councilors asked staff to continue tracking use, evaluate possible purchases, and return with recommended next steps.
