PASA demographers tell BOERNE ISD to plan for steady enrollment growth; elementary capacity could be strained by 2035

Summary

Demographers presented at BOERNE ISD’s March 2 budget workshop, projecting continued housing‑led student growth and a districtwide student‑per‑home ratio decline; under a primary scenario the district could reach ~13,372 students in five years and would need capacity planning to avoid elementary overcrowding by the mid‑2030s.

Consultants from Population & Survey Analysts (PASA) told the BOERNE ISD Board on March 2 that continued residential development will keep student enrollment rising, but fewer students are showing up per new home — a combination that requires detailed, subdivision‑level planning for new facilities.

PASA lead presenter Chris (PASA) summarized the study process and key findings, saying, “the ratio of students per household for you guys right now is 0.45,” and that the firm uses parcel‑level appraiser data, geocoded student addresses and per‑subdivision yields to produce projections. The consultants told trustees a full study takes about four months and the district receives a full study every two years with mini‑updates in between.

The presentation said BOERNE ISD has participated in regional growth tied to a ring of suburban expansion outside the San Antonio metro area and that the district gained roughly 1,500 students over the past five years (about 3,200 over 10 years). PASA projected under a primary scenario roughly 13,372…

PASA demographers tell BOERNE ISD to plan for steady enrollment growth; elementary capacity could be strained by 2035

Summary

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