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Board deems state economic forecast reasonable; staff flags projected personal income growth
Summary
Staff reviewed the University of Tennessee forecast for Tennessee personal income growth and told the board the projected nominal personal income increases (about 4.7%–5.13% across FY26–CY27) were not unreasonable; a commissioner asked about implications for consumer spending.
Staff from the Comptroller’s office reviewed the annual economic report to the governor and advised the board that the forecasted growth in Tennessee nominal personal income appears reasonable when compared with other public and private forecasts.
William Wood, a financial analyst in the Comptroller’s office, summarized staff’s review and reported the forecast figures presented in the economic report: nominal personal income growth of 4.70% for fiscal year 2026, 5.02% for calendar year 2026 and 5.13% for calendar year 2027. Wood told the board the staff compared the Center for Business and Economic Research forecast to other government and non-government forecasts and found the estimates "not unreasonable."
Commissioner Bryson asked how the personal income forecast relates to consumer spending; Wood replied that personal income generally tracks consumer spending and that, while the forecast is a useful proxy, it does not guarantee spending will rise by the same amount.
The board formally recorded staff commentary that the report and its assumptions had been reviewed and deemed reasonable; this was a report item and required no board vote beyond the commentary on the record.
