DEED analyst: Cook County’s aging population and second‑home market are tightening workforce housing

Carson Gorki, regional labor market analyst for Northeast Minnesota at the Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), told the Cook County committee on March 17 that demographic and housing trends are creating recruitment and retention challenges for local employers.

"I'm Carson Gorki. I'm the regional labor market analyst for Northeast Minnesota for the Department of Employment Economic Development, also known as DEED," he said, and described a briefing that covered population, labor markets and housing supply.

Gorki said Cook County's estimated population is about 5,600 and that the median age is roughly 52.3 as of 2024, a figure he contrasted with statewide medians to highlight an older local population and a rising share of residents aged 75 and over in coming years. He said that natural change (births minus deaths) in recent years has been negative and that migration — including both permanent movers and higher‑income second‑home buyers — has been the major offset to population losses.

On labor markets, Gorki described the county's seasonal employment profile: accommodation and food services, public administration and retail account for a large share of covered jobs, and self‑employment is relatively common. He said the county's labor force has declined over the long term with aging, unemployment hit a historic low in 2020 and has since risen, and that the ratio of job vacancies to job seekers has moved from exceptionally tight after COVID toward a looser market.

Gorki flagged the role of migrant seasonal workers in the tourism economy, citing H‑2B data and noting the absence of a similarly comprehensive public J‑1 data series; he estimated that H‑2B and J‑1 workers combined could be as much as about 10% of the local workforce in busy seasons.

On housing, Gorki said Cook County shows a notably high share of vacant housing units classified as seasonal, recreational or occasional use — second homes — which reduces the stock available for long‑term workers. He said median home values have risen substantially in recent five‑year averages and that HUD and Census rent measures can understate current local rents; during the meeting officials noted HUD's one‑bedroom standard figure ($888) and participants said local market rents and owner costs often exceed those benchmarks.

Gorki summarized the affordability challenge as an interaction of higher sales prices, taxes, insurance and construction costs with household incomes that lag statewide averages. He said those dynamics make it difficult for many essential occupations to afford even two‑bedroom rentals or starter homes and that renovation costs can deter rehabilitation of older housing stock.

Committee members asked for county‑specific breakdowns and raised issues such as homestead versus short‑term rental tax treatment and how band‑owned housing and tribal mechanisms affect local counts. Gorki acknowledged survey response‑rate caveats for some populations and offered to follow up with county‑specific numbers on request.

The presentation concluded with a call to factor housing constraints into workforce strategies and to use targeted interventions where feasible (for example, examining tax classification, local incentives and targeted housing development) to bridge affordability gaps for local employers.