Appeals Court considers evidence and risk tools in Chipriano civil‑commitment appeal

The Appeals Court heard argument in Aragon Chipriano’s petition challenging a finding that he remains sexually dangerous.

Attorney Fred Burke urged the panel to focus on age and objective measures of risk. He noted the petitioner is in his 70s and that literature cited to the court shows a steep drop in recidivism with advancing age. Burke said the Static‑99R — the standard actuarial tool used in these matters — scored the petitioner at level two (average) and that the petitioner had made measurable progress in institutional treatment: "He's a 70 plus year old man," Burke said, arguing that the combination of age, Static‑99R score and treatment progress created reasonable doubt about continued danger to the public.

Commonwealth counsel Mary Murray replied that actuarial instruments measure group risk and cannot substitute for clinical and behavioral evidence in the record. Murray pointed to the petitioner’s prior convictions, clinical interviews in which he did not fully accept responsibility, and dynamic risk factors the experts identified. She told the panel the jury was entitled to credit the Commonwealth’s experts and that lower recidivism in general populations does not control for the subset of sexually dangerous persons adjudicated under state law.

Judges and counsel debated the limits of statistical studies, whether the Static‑99R properly accounts for age and ethnicity in this case, and the weight to be given to treatment reports and CAB (clinical advisory board) testimony. After questioning, the court took the appeal under advisement.