Consultants tell San Carlos council a half‑cent sales tax is more viable than a $60M bond to fund downtown and services

San Carlos consultants presented a voter‑feasibility study on Nov. 10 that found a general 1/2‑cent sales tax to be a more viable revenue path to fund downtown improvements and city services than a $60 million bond.

The consulting team (Team Civics and True North Research) said it surveyed 699 likely November 2026 voters in September and used a split‑sample design to test a bond and a sales tax. The initial 75‑word ballot test produced 60% support for a $60 million bond and 67% support for a half‑cent general sales tax. Because bonds require a two‑thirds threshold and sales taxes require a simple majority, the sales tax began with a stronger electoral position.

Consultants further probed support by testing tax‑rate framing, specific project/service priorities and both pro and con messaging. Tim McClarnney, president of True North Research, said that when the bond was framed explicitly as a $20 per $100,000 assessed valuation tax (the rate used in the initial bond language) support dropped; translating that number into a typical homeowner cost moved support up a bit but not to the two‑thirds level. "Even at the $7 per 100,000 assessed valuation tax rate, we check in about four points below the two‑thirds threshold," he said.

By contrast, the sales tax remained resilient through positive and negative message testing and settled near 65% in the final ballot test — a margin consultants judged feasible for a November 2026 general election measure. Tim said some anti‑tax arguments resonated ("now's not a good time to raise taxes"), but that the sales tax retained a comfortable buffer above the simple majority required for passage.

Why it matters: A sales tax can fund both capital needs and ongoing operations; a bond is restricted to capital and requires a higher voter threshold. Consultants said many top voter priorities (parks and recreation maintenance, street repairs, public safety) are fundable via a general sales tax and that these uses test well.

Consultants’ recommendation and next steps: The team recommended the council proceed to a vetting phase (community stakeholder outreach and city‑funded informational outreach), then finalize measure language and conduct a short tracking poll before the Aug. 7, 2026 ordinance deadline to qualify for the November 2026 ballot. If council decides to place a measure on the ballot, consultants advised a privately funded independent campaign to advocate for passage.

Council reaction: Members expressed a preference to pursue community vetting and education on city revenue sources. Several said the next poll should test alternative rates (half‑cent versus higher increments up to the county cap) and confirm support given the potential for competing measures in 2026.