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District poll shows bond support near 55% threshold; consultants advise November ballot
Summary
A district polling presentation found support for two tested bond sizes clustered around the 55% passage threshold, with consultants urging a November election over a June primary because of turnout composition and better resilience to opposition messaging.
SAN MATEO — A tracking poll presented to the San Mateo‑Foster City School District board on Tuesday shows support for a potential school facilities bond hovering near the 55% threshold needed under Proposition 39.
Jessica Psky Sanchez of EMC Research told trustees the mixed‑mode poll of 600 likely voters tested two options — a $498 million measure and a $326 million measure — and found initial support “right near the 55% threshold” for both amounts. The overall margin of error for the sample was roughly plus or minus 4 percentage points, she said.
Why it matters: Poll results will help the district decide whether to place a bond measure on the ballot and, if so, in which election. Consultants cautioned that small shifts in turnout or effective opposition messaging could determine the outcome.
The poll showed younger voters, renters and lower‑propensity voters tended to be somewhat more supportive than homeowners and older voters, the presenters said. When respondents heard a cost‑centered opposition statement, support dipped more sharply for the larger $498 million option than for the $326 million alternative.
“Costs are a concern,” Psky Sanchez said, noting that opposition messaging produced more vulnerability for the higher amount. The presenters said the split‑sample methodology produced a per‑cell margin of error around ±5.7 percentage points.
Consultants’ recommendation: Given the sensitivity of the results to opposition messages and the different turnout mixes in a June primary versus a November election, consultants recommended considering a November 2026 election if the district seeks a larger bond amount. As one presenter put it, “if a larger amount is something that the district pursues, we recommend looking toward a November election.”
Trustee reaction: Trustees discussed tradeoffs. Several agreed that June primary electorates tend to be older and more homeowner‑skewed, making them a tougher audience for this measure; others noted November ballots are often crowded with measures but can produce higher turnout among favorable voter groups.
What’s next: Staff said the polling will inform outreach and the board’s deliberations on timing, measure size and the final project list that will appear in the ballot materials if the board decides to move forward.
