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Walled Lake projects notable student decline over next five years, consultant says
Summary
A consultant told the Walled Lake Consolidated Schools Board projected district enrollments could fall from about 12,863 in 2019 to roughly 10,100–11,700 over the next five to ten years depending on modeling assumptions, with declining birth rates identified as the primary driver.
Mister Wills of PMR told the Walled Lake Consolidated Schools Board that district enrollment is likely to decline noticeably over the next five to ten years, calling the statewide fall in birth rates the “most compelling factor” behind the trend.
Wills presented three projection methods that produce different totals: an aggressive Method 1 with a steeper decline, a blended Method 2 (recommended for financial modeling) and a more conservative Method 3. He said projections using Method 1 estimate the district could fall to about 10,009 full‑time equivalent (FTE) students, while Method 3 would be closer to 11,000–11,700 FTE. "I think the most compelling factor is declining birth rate," Wills said, citing Pew Research and state birth‑data trends.
Why it matters: enrollment numbers drive staffing, foundation allowance calculations and long‑term capital planning. Wills said districts rely on these forecasts when setting next year’s staffing and when planning for building utilization and bond or capital needs.
Trustees pressed for clarity on the numbers and methods. Trustee Siegler asked whether the presentation used blended FTE or headcount; Wills answered that the FTE figure is a blended count that administrators use for funding projections. Wills and trustees also discussed capture rates — the share of local births that enter the district — and how early childhood programs have helped the district maintain a steady capture rate despite fewer births overall.
Wills walked the board through building‑level projections, noting many elementary schools are expected to stabilize around 400–500 students while some middle schools may dip below 1,000. He said the district’s secondary migration (families moving into the district whose children are middle‑ or high‑school age) has helped maintain high‑school totals in the near term. "So again, total population is about 5 to 6% of under age 5...the biggest changes you're gonna see is that age 5 to 18," he told the board.
What’s next: the board will use the projections in upcoming budget and staffing decisions and in long‑term facilities planning. Wills recommended trustees and staff select a modeling approach and run financial scenarios tied to each method.
Provenance: presentation and Q&A in the board meeting (see transcript segments SEG 071–SEG 505).
