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Demographer says enrollment likely stable but district losing market share to private and homeschool growth
Summary
Business Information Services presented a four‑model enrollment projection that shows district‑wide stabilization but a concerning shift of students to private and home schooling and excess facility capacity; report recommends enrollment retention strategies and targeted outreach.
Business Information Services presented a 10‑year enrollment projection built from four models—cohort survival, births/census, school‑age population and housing/economic indicators. Dr. Paul Kelly described the cohort survival approach as the foundation: the way children move grade‑to‑grade established a predictable “fingerprint” for the district.
The firm’s composite projection showed enrollment broadly stable rather than in steep decline. But presenters warned the…
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