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WASDE: Beef production trimmed, pork and dairy forecasts adjusted; turkey production lowered amid HPAI effects
Summary
The outlook board lowered U.S. beef production for the year based on slower slaughter rates, left pork unchanged, cut turkey production amid HPAI impacts, and raised milk production forecasts for 2026 with higher dairy product prices.
Dr. Mark Jakenowski told attendees that U.S. beef production for the month was lowered by about 110 million pounds, largely reflecting a slower pace of slaughter than previously forecast; he noted higher carcass weights partially offset the slower pace. Pork production was unchanged in this cycle, while turkey production was lowered by about 40 million pounds, with lingering impacts from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) contributing to the revision.
Jakenowski said beef and hog price forecasts moved higher this month—U.S. steer price forecasts were raised by $1.75 per hundredweight and hog prices were raised $1.25 per hundredweight—supported by tight supplies and strong domestic and export demand. He reported trade adjustments: beef exports were reduced by about 30 million pounds while pork exports were raised by about 50 million pounds, with stronger shipments to Latin America and parts of East Asia.
On dairy, the board raised its 2026 milk production forecast by 100 million pounds based on revised inventory and milk‑per‑cow data; dairy product prices (cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk) were adjusted mostly higher and the all‑milk price was raised to $19.70 per hundredweight for the season. Jakenowski closed by noting the next regular crop production release and thanking attendees.
