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WASDE: Argentina dryness trims corn and soybean forecasts; global wheat nudged higher
Summary
The World Agricultural Outlook Board reported a small global wheat increase, raised global corn supplies but lowered Argentina corn and soybean outputs due to late‑season drying and heat, and adjusted trade and stocks across several countries.
Dr. Mark Jakenowski, chair of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, said March’s global balance‑sheet revisions were modest overall but highlighted weather‑driven reductions in Argentina. He described lower corn and soybean forecasts for Argentina—corn down roughly 2% from last month and soybeans down about 1%—driven by late‑season dryness and episodes of unfavorable heat that reduced vegetation health in major production regions.
Jakenowski said global wheat production was raised about 300,000 tons this month, with offsetting country changes (Australia down but still near record levels; Ukraine and Kazakhstan raised on official data). Global wheat ending stocks remain at a multi‑year high despite small monthly adjustments. For corn, global production increased by about 1.5 million tons overall (Brazil and Ukraine gains offset Argentina declines), and global ending stocks were raised by roughly 3.9 million tons reflecting higher stocks in Brazil, Ukraine and India.
On soybeans, Jakenowski reported a global production reduction of about 1 million tons (Argentina and Ukraine). He noted modest changes to global trade and crush patterns: U.S. soybean imports and crush were each raised 5 million bushels this month with an adjusted extraction rate producing more meal and less oil per bushel.
Jakenowski underscored that the Argentina adjustments stemmed from rainfall traces and vegetation‑health indices showing cumulative decline compared with prior years, and he cautioned that these are estimates subject to revision once harvest data are finalized.
