Bureau of Reclamation warns of low snowpack; says normal power operations should limit high flows at Lake Fork Creek

Michael (Mike) Holberg, facility manager at the PBLO Dam and Field Office of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, told the Lake County Board of County Commissioners on March 10 that the Frying Pan–Arkansas project will operate in a dry‑year mode this spring and summer and that local recreation may be constrained if runoff remains low.

Holberg said the Arkansas River Basin currently has roughly 50% of average snow‑water equivalent and cited National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that expect about 61% of average flow at the Granite gauge. "We are facing the lowest snow pack on record," he said, adding that the bureau bases operational predictions on snowpack gauges feeding statistical models.

Holberg described the project’s infrastructure — the Charles H. Boost (Boost?) tunnel that conveys West‑Slope water under the Continental Divide into Turquoise Lake (capacity roughly 945 CFS), and the Mount Elbert conduit and power plant that move water from Turquoise to Twin Lakes — noting storage balances across Turquoise (~129,000 acre‑feet active storage) and Twin Lakes (~140,000 acre‑feet). He said project water is stored for municipal, industrial, irrigation, recreation and fish‑and‑wildlife uses, and that fixed storage accounts exist for Colorado Springs, Aurora and PBLO Board of Waterworks.

On summer operations, Holberg said Mount Elbert Power Plant Unit 1 is available and Unit 2 is expected to be returned to service in late 2026 or early 2027. "Barring any unforeseen outages or problems with the power plant, this is going to mean we're expecting normal flows on Lake Fork Creek," he said, describing normal flows as roughly 3 to 15 CFS depending on inflow conditions.

He cautioned that bureau water‑and‑power operations take precedence over recreation. If Twin Lakes drops below the minimum elevation needed for the pumpback (pumpback used to refill Twin via the power plant), staff may need to lower Turquoise Lake in order to serve project priorities; that action could briefly leave the Turquoise boat ramp unusable. Holberg also described the Voluntary Flow Management Program — a cooperative agreement among Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District, Chaffee County, Trout Unlimited and Colorado Parks and Wildlife — that can use up to 10,000 acre‑feet of stored water from Twin Lakes to support recreational boating between July 1 and Aug. 15 when available.

Commissioners asked whether the bureau factors long‑range precipitation forecasts into planning. Holberg said bureau forecasts are anchored to snowpack gauge data and the state’s water‑rights priority system limits how much any single agency can alter river administration: the bureau directly controls a relatively small share of upper‑basin flow and facilitates but does not determine many downstream releases.

On the question of power, Holberg confirmed the bureau owns and operates the Mount Elbert Power Plant and said Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) directs generation schedules and manages power sales. He described a 2024 failure that required major repairs to one turbine unit and reiterated expectations for the second unit’s return to service next year.

The presentation closed with a notice that Clear Creek Reservoir personnel plan dam work and a drawdown that will likely shift recreational boat traffic toward Twin Lakes beginning in mid‑June; commissioners and bureau staff agreed to coordinate around visitation and flow communications.

Next steps: Reclamation staff will maintain communication with county staff and the voluntary flow group as runoff unfolds; commissioners said they expect monthly operational updates during the runoff season.