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Staff models show modest near-term benefit increase but possible employer tax uptick if trust fund breaches $350M
Summary
Department staff told the subcommittee an isolated model of Representative McKenzie27s benefit-tier proposal would raise benefit payouts by about $9.9 million in the modeled year; if trust-fund balances dip below $350 million, staff estimates an incremental $6 million in employer taxes across two quarters. The timing of triggers and the effective date are critical to the outcome.
Department staff presented an analysis isolating the effect of Representative McKenzie27s proposed additional benefit tiers using 2025 claim experience and an assumed July 1 effective date. The isolated estimate increased benefit payouts by roughly $9.9 million over the modeled year. Staff emphasized the modeling intentionally did not fold in other changes (such as shortening…
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