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SolTrans budget and performance update: under‑budget by ~$500K, Clipper fare‑recovery gaps complicate revenue estimates
Summary
Finance staff reported the agency is about 4% (roughly $500,000) under budget, highlighted lingering Clipper equipment and fare‑recovery issues that complicate lost‑revenue calculations, and performance staff described large improvements in missed trips and modest on‑time performance gains.
SolTrans staff presented a quarterly budget and system‑performance update that showed the agency running about 4% (roughly $500,000) under budget for the year to date and reported continued difficulty quantifying lost fare revenue because of Clipper equipment and business‑rule issues.
Christina Botsford told the board the under‑budget position is driven by a mix of factors: liquidated damages assessed against the contractor that reduced contract costs, lower fuel spending while a backup generator was used, and about $100,000 in salary savings from a six‑month vacancy. Operating revenue is still below the adopted budget but is approximately $150,000 higher than at the same point last year, staff said.
On fare recovery, Mayor Young raised an outstanding disputed balance with MTC of about $7.8 million that he said remains unresolved. Staff described multiple technical and business‑rule failures during the Clipper equipment transition that make precise lost‑fare accounting difficult: some taps did not register when equipment or cellular connections failed, transfers or route identifiers were not always transmitted properly, and pre/post pandemic ridership and fare behavior complicate baseline assumptions. "It's really gonna be impossible for us to give MTC and Clipper a hard number of this lost revenue," the presenter said.
Performance staff reported route‑level ridership shifts — with some local routes down and others up — and said missed trips have fallen sharply. In Q2 there were 1,123 missed trips out of nearly 35,000 scheduled trips; staff described that as a substantial improvement compared with last year. Average on‑time performance for the quarter was reported at about 71% for local service, 72% for express and 76% for ADA. The agency plans a system redesign and is coordinating with the Vallejo School District to adjust routes for school closures, with a redesigned Route 38 planned for August.
Board members asked for the 10‑year forecast packet in advance of the next meeting and pressed staff for follow‑up details on the disputed Clipper amounts and on measures to sustain the missed‑trip improvements. Staff said they will provide more analysis in the next meeting and include deeper revenue assumptions in the 10‑year forecast.
