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SolTrans finance staff warns Solano Express faces funding gap; board weighs fares, contract options and electric bus risks
Summary
SolTrans staff presented a 10-year forecast showing local fixed-route and paratransit may be sustainable but Solano Express likely needs at least $4 million in STA by 2028 or risks service cuts; the board discussed fare increases, a pending $212.5 million FTA grant obligation, and whether to rebid the Transdev operations contract.
Finance staff (identified in discussion as Christina) presented a 10-year operating and capital forecast and a public Q&A that emphasized funding risks to Solano Express and near-term capital uncertainties.
Key takeaways: staff said local fixed-route and paratransit operations can be covered for the next several years with current TDA and federal formula funds if assumptions hold, but Solano Express requires additional state transit assistance (STA) beginning in July 2028. The presenter said the agency would need roughly $4 million in STA over the next two years to avoid drawing heavily on reserves or cutting service. "If we do not get $4,000,000 starting fiscal year '28, '29, at a minimum, with our current contract with Transdev...we will not be able to fund the service for long," the presenter said.
Capital risks: staff said a competitive FTA grant award for buses and chargers (reported in the meeting as $212,500,000) remains pending obligation; if the grant is not obligated by September it could expire and the agency could lose the funds. Staff also noted they have spent pre-award authority (~$500,000 on chargers and consultant fees) but are not committed to the full award until obligated.
Operations and procurement: the contract with Transdev for service operations expires this June and includes five 1-year option terms; staff said the variable hourly rate (presented in discussion as about $85 rising to $89 per revenue hour) makes operations two-thirds of the budget. The board discussed rebidding versus renewing 1-year options; staff said they are preparing scope language to support a potential future RFP.
Fleet electrification and fuel planning: staff reported five electric buses in service and seven arriving next month, putting roughly two-thirds of the local fleet on battery-electric vehicles. For long-distance Solano Express coaches, where electric coaches are not feasible for range, hydrogen fuel-cell coaches could be required; staff said a hydrogen fueling facility would need roughly 1.7 acres and that federal funding uncertainty has put some hydrogen planning on hold.
Board reaction and next steps: directors questioned several assumptions (county sales tax trends, FTA obligation timing, fuel price stability) and asked staff to produce disaggregated analyses separating local service from Solano Express and to return with scenario options (including fare increases, service-level menus, and the financial impact of exercising or rebidding Transdev contract options). The board approved consent items and asked staff to return with the more detailed breakouts and recommended actions at the next meeting.
The board did not adopt any financial motions during the meeting; staff will return with more detailed scenarios.
