Union River study finds relicensing or lower-dam removal could boost recreation and fisheries, while raising trade-offs for energy and shoreline owners

A third-party economic study presented to the Ellsworth City Council workshop on a March evening analyzed three future scenarios for the Union River and the two-dam hydroelectric project serving Graham Lake and the downstream Ellsworth/Leonard Lake dam.

Claire Sherid, the senior economist and co-author from consulting firm One Water Econ, told the council the study compared a baseline of current conditions, a relicensing scenario with dam upgrades and fish passage, and a full removal scenario for the lower dam with river restoration. "You would certainly lose hydro power" under removal, Sherid said, adding that the study assumed that any lost renewable generation would be replaced by Maine's current energy mix.

The study estimated the economic trade-offs across a 50-year present-value horizon. Under the "modern-standards" relicensing scenario the report projected a potential $20 million to $50 million increase in commercial-fisheries value over 50 years; under the lower-dam removal scenario the study projected roughly 43 new commercial-fishing jobs and about $3 million a year in additional fisheries revenue. Presenters also said recreation gains could be substantial: a whitewater amenity near downtown, if pursued, could support roughly 40 jobs and generate about $5 million a year in economic activity in certain scenarios.

Austin Schup, who introduced the study on behalf of project partners, emphasized the regulatory context: the project's federal license expired in 2017, and relicensing or an ownership change would trigger federal and state review, including water-quality standards and fish-passage requirements. "Those required regulatory changes … would overwhelmingly make Graham Lake a better lake for homeowners, for recreation, for wildlife, for fish," Schup said, while noting that the study did not treat removal of Graham Lake Dam as an option.

Local conservation and fisheries organizations framed the river as an economic as well as ecological asset. A speaker from the Downey (transcript: "Downey Stand") Salmon Federation described potential fish-return increases with fish passage or removal, and a Frenchman Bay Conservancy representative stressed connections between river management, downtown recreation and the working waterfront.

Council members and presenters repeatedly stressed that the numerical benefits depend heavily on assumptions about what amenities or mitigation are implemented and about how lost energy generation would be replaced. Presenters noted the Ellsworth dams currently contribute only a small share of statewide hydro production; one slide cited roughly 1% of state hydro output coming from the Ellsworth project.

The study team identified several immediate next steps the council could pursue: (1) follow-up feasibility and sediment/flood-risk study support from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, (2) close participation in the expected state public-comment period on the new water-quality certificate tied to relicensing, and (3) continued community engagement to address residents' confusion and distrust about the relicensing process. "If you'd want to be in touch with [USACE] about doing a feasibility study they would look into that," a presenter said.

Public commenters urged caution. A resident who spoke during the workshop's public-comment period described erosion of shorelines during high water, seasonal drawdowns, limitations on boating when water is low and doubts about the viability of large-scale whitewater recreation in the river's current geomorphic conditions. The commenter recommended boots-on-the-ground inspection of exposed sediments and noted that property- and insurance-related impacts for shoreline owners must be examined before any removal action.

No formal decisions or votes were taken at the workshop. Staff and presenters said they would return with additional technical work, community engagement plans and opportunities for the public to participate in state-level comment periods and future council discussions.