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Superintendent urges bond planning as 20-year model predicts steep enrollment, revenue drops
Summary
The superintendent presented six scenarios showing continuing student decline, an empty-seat analysis and potential $3.4M–$9M loss in state-aid over 20 years; he asked the board to begin bond planning and facility reconfiguration work sessions ahead of a possible November vote.
Superintendent Dr. Dilly told the Randolph County Board of Education that a 20-year statistical enrollment model shows a continuing decline in student enrollment with scenarios that could push district enrollment below 2,000 students by the 2040s.
He said the analysis — prepared with state education colleagues and based on program-capacity figures from the district's 2019 CFP — presents six scenarios. Under the range of modeled outcomes, the district could lose roughly $3.42 million to as much as $9 million in state-aid over 20 years if nothing else changes, he said. The…
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