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Superintendent urges bond planning as 20-year model predicts steep enrollment, revenue drops
Summary
The superintendent presented six scenarios showing continuing student decline, an empty-seat analysis and potential $3.4M–$9M loss in state-aid over 20 years; he asked the board to begin bond planning and facility reconfiguration work sessions ahead of a possible November vote.
Superintendent Dr. Dilly told the Randolph County Board of Education that a 20-year statistical enrollment model shows a continuing decline in student enrollment with scenarios that could push district enrollment below 2,000 students by the 2040s.
He said the analysis — prepared with state education colleagues and based on program-capacity figures from the district's 2019 CFP — presents six scenarios. Under the range of modeled outcomes, the district could lose roughly $3.42 million to as much as $9 million in state-aid over 20 years if nothing else changes, he said. The model isolates the state-aid portion of funding and does not account for future inflation.
The superintendent highlighted a facility-utilization framework and an "empty-seat" analysis that estimates about 1,890 unused seats next year under current capacity numbers. He said districts generally consider 80%+ utilization efficient, 65%–79% a watch range, 50%–64% underutilized and below 50% severely underutilized; by that metric the district is operating near the watch/underutilized range.
To address those trends, Dr. Dilly presented long-range facility options including a four-school model (Tiger Valley PreK–8, Midland PreK–8, Elkins-area facility and the technical center) and variants such as PreK–12 or PreK–8 configurations. He said design choices should favor versatility (reconfigurable wings, appropriate square footage for pre-K classrooms and future adaptability) because a building sized for today's need could be underused later.
Board members asked about timeline and legal deadlines for a bond or levy. The superintendent said November general-election timing requires significant preparatory work well before the 90-day statutory deadline and recommended immediate work sessions with architects and staff to develop cost estimates, funding plans and community outreach materials. He proposed bringing preliminary budget calendar items to the board in May.
Next steps the superintendent sought: board guidance on whether to begin meeting with architects, a dedicated bond work session to refine options and an outreach plan so voters know the rationale for any proposed bond. He noted three board seats will change in the coming cycle and said the district should produce a clear, defensible long-term plan for successors to continue.
