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Five‑year forecast warns Carmel-by-the‑Sea could exhaust reserves by 2029–30; council orders cost clarifications and budget scenarios
Summary
City staff warned that under current service levels and a roughly $10M annual CIP plan the city's available fund balance could be exhausted in fiscal 2029–30; council asked staff for more detailed project costs, a concise list of operating‑cut options and a small set of what‑if budget scenarios (including an 85/15 revenue/CIP split) ahead of the May draft budget.
Carmel‑by‑the‑Sea city staff told the City Council March 24 that the city's five‑year forecast shows revenues growing more slowly than operating and capital costs and — if no policy changes or new revenues are adopted — available fund balance could be exhausted in FY2029–30.
Jamie, the finance presenter, walked the council through revenue assumptions (flat to slow growth for property, sales and transient occupancy taxes), major expense drivers (salaries and benefits, escalating pension obligations, services and supplies tied to CPI), and how the forecast treats capital outlays. "If we continue down the road of a roughly $10 million CIP with the service levels and staffing where they're at and no new revenue, that's where we end up," Jamie said.
Staff emphasized that deferred maintenance dominates the near‑term CIP: roughly 80% of…
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