Get Full Government Meeting Transcripts, Videos, & Alerts Forever!
Get email alerts on the Enrollment topic
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Modesto City Schools reports small enrollment decline in early 2025–26 counts
Summary
District enrollment at the fourth‑week count was 29,433 (TK–12), a decline of 336 students (≈1.3%) year‑over‑year. Officials cited completed TK expansion, a drop in newcomer enrollments and net interdistrict transfer deficits as drivers and said the numbers will inform 2026‑27 budget projections.
Modesto City Schools reported 29,433 TK–12 students in the district at the fourth‑week student count for 2025–26, a decline of 336 students (about 1.3%) compared with the same point last year.
Director Mrs. Clearly presented the count on Oct. 20 and identified multiple factors affecting the net decline: completion of prior years’ TK expansion (the district no longer expects continued TK growth), a decrease in newcomer LII enrollments (about 200 fewer than the prior year), and a net interdistrict transfer deficit (442 incoming requests versus 519 outgoing, a net loss of 77). Several grade‑cohort regressions were noted — for example, a drop in students from sixth to seventh in one cohort — that will affect next year’s projections.
The district said it uses a weighted three‑year cohort model to project enrollment and will feed these figures into 2026‑27 budget planning. Mrs. Clearly warned that local and statewide demographic trends (including lower birth rates) can make planning harder and urged caution in projecting sustained growth.
What happens next: enrollment projections based on the three‑year cohort method will inform the district’s budget and staffing plans for 2026‑27; staff said they will report projected counts during budget development.
