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San Rafael reports surge in entitlements but few building permits; council accepts 2025 housing progress report
Summary
City staff told the council that 576 housing units were entitled in 2025 — a recent spike driven by downtown and Northgate activity — but only 33 building permits were issued and 179 units began construction; the council voted to accept the annual General Plan and Housing Element progress report and direct staff to file it with state housing authorities.
Greg Miner, deputy director of the Community Economic Development Department, told the City Council on Monday that the city saw a large increase in entitlement activity in 2025 but not a commensurate increase in units started or completed.
"576 units were entitled," Miner said, noting that most of the entitlement activity reflects multiunit downtown projects tied to the Downtown Precise Plan and other recently approved developments. He added that only "33 housing units were issued building permits" in 2025, of which 28 were accessory dwelling units (ADUs).
The nut of the presentation was this: the pipeline of approved projects has grown sharply but the pipeline has not yet translated into construction. Miner told the council that while entitlement activity averaged about 180 units per year between 2018 and 2023, after 2023 the city has averaged more than 1,400 entitled units per year when recent approvals are included. "The entitlement activity hasn't carried over into the actual construction just yet," he said.
Housing‑program manager Alexis Capanian described work to preserve existing affordable housing and assist tenants. She said 94 units at 400 Canal Street were preserved as affordable through a regional preservation program, and noted that 103 units for older adults were completed at a newly opened Aegis Living facility.
The council and staff spent much of the hearing discussing whether the jump in entitlements will move into construction. Officials said several large projects have demolition permits or construction documents in hand — steps that make near‑term building more likely — but cautioned that financing, permitting and infrastructure capacity (sewer, water, roads) remain gating factors.
Council members asked about regional housing‑need obligations (RHNA) and whether certain counts (assisted‑living and preserved units) count toward those targets. Staff said preservation and completed assisted‑living units are documented and included where appropriate in reporting, but that overall the city has issued only a small fraction of the building permits needed to meet its RHNA targets to date (staff reported about 6.5% of required building permits issued for the 2023–2031 cycle).
In public comment, residents urged more deed‑restricted units and raised safety and geotechnical concerns for sites near liquefaction‑prone areas. Staff noted that projects on geotechnical hazard sites require site‑specific reports and adherence to building‑code and peer‑review processes.
Following the presentation and public comment, the council voted to accept the 2025 General Plan and Housing Element annual progress report and directed staff to submit it to the California Department of Housing and Community Development.
What happens next: staff will continue to track which entitled projects move into building permits and construction, report on preserved units in future spreadsheets, and continue coordination with sanitation and water agencies about capacity and fair‑share infrastructure contributions.
