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Forecast shows slower growth and shifts in market share; staff to pursue community input on underutilized multitrack schools
Summary
District presenters said ADM has declined recently and forecasts show slower growth driven by lower foreign‑born migration, declining live births and school-choice shifts; staff proposed community engagement and an April work session before recommending calendar conversions or other adjustments at several underutilized multitrack schools for 2028–29.
Wake County staff and outside demographers presented a 10‑year student membership forecast and an associated facilities-utilization review to the facilities committee.
Presenters from Carolina Demography and Demographic Analytic Advisors described their methodology (grade‑progression/cohort change ratios plus a kindergarten estimate based on lagged births) and said Wake County Public Schools has seen a recent decline in average daily membership (ADM). They cited several drivers:…
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