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Enrollment forecast: Flow Analytics projects continued near‑term decline, possible rebound around 2029–30
Summary
Consultants from Flow Analytics told the Forest Grove School District that K–6 enrollment declined most sharply since 2019; three modeled scenarios show continued near‑term declines and a modest rebound near 2029–30 if recent birth cohorts and capture rates persist.
Flow Analytics presented a 10‑year enrollment forecast to Forest Grove trustees and the budget committee on April 14, showing a district‑level decline since 2019 and three scenarios for the next decade.
The consulting team said the district lost roughly 451 students between 2019–20 and 2025–26, with most of that loss concentrated in kindergarten–sixth grade. Flow Analytics described district capture rates — the share of resident kindergarten‑eligible children who enroll in district schools — at about 0.77, which is in line with many districts in the region.
Ethan, the Flow Analytics presenter, explained the firm derives forecasts from three main inputs: historical enrollment/cohort patterns, regional demographic trends (births, populations of childbearing age) and near‑term housing and development projects that produce students. He showed that recent birth counts, which were low in some earlier years, rebounded to higher counts in 2023–24 and 2024–25; under the firm’s medium scenario those larger birth cohorts begin to produce slightly larger kindergarten classes starting around the 2029–30 school year.
“The district enrolled 139 students from out of the district and had an intradistrict transfer rate of about 12.6 percent,” Ethan said, describing patterns that affect attendance-area enrollments and school‑level planning. The firm also presented student‑generation rates by housing type (for example, roughly 0.24 K–12 students per multifamily unit built in the last decade).
District staff said they will use the forecast to shape budgeting and staffing assumptions and to guide community outreach aimed at improving the capture rate (for example, kindergarten outreach, messaging about programs and potential online options to recapture students lost to non‑district options).
What it means for budgeting: the forecast’s medium scenario shows several more years of decline before stabilization and eventual modest growth in the early 2030s; budget staff said they used a conservative floor for enrollment when projecting next year’s revenue and are preparing for the near‑term decline in order to avoid deeper cuts later.
District leaders noted the forecast is one input among many — state school‑fund adjustments, changes to weighted funding (for special education or poverty), and legislative actions remain material uncertainties for the budget.
