Elma School District projects about 36 fewer students next year; staff warns of budget pressure

A staff member presenting enrollment figures to the Elma School District Board said the district is projecting a decline of roughly 36 students for the 2026-27 school year.

"We're projecting 36 fewer kids district-wide next year than we have this year," the staff member said, noting kindergarten enrollment is especially low: "Right now we have 75 kids that are enrolled." The presenter said the budgeted kindergarten figure is 80.2 and that overall district full-time-equivalent enrollment is expected to fall by about 36.2 FTE.

The presenter described using a roll-forward method for budgeting and listed school-level adjustments: small incoming cohorts at some grades, an estimated three students from Salsa, 25 from McLary, and reductions as students leave for Running Start and other options. On Running Start the presenter said, "Running Start is really a pass-through money. We get 7% off the indirect. The rest just passes through," adding that those funds have limited impact on the district's bottom line.

Board members asked brief clarifying questions and thanked the presenter for the visual spreadsheet. The staff member cautioned that final budget decisions depend on the F-203 revenue report and on collective bargaining outcomes. "If I'm running low to make payroll, I'm going to have to inflate the numbers a little to make sure we can run off budget for 4 months. It could be that I have to budget some fund balance to cover payroll," the presenter said.

Why it matters: fewer enrolled students typically reduces per-pupil revenue and can affect staffing and program budgets. The presenter said the district will revisit the estimates after the official F-203 revenue figures and once bargaining is settled.

The board did not take formal action on enrollment at this meeting; presenters said they will update the board as revenue reports and bargaining results become available.