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City-cited study: ductless all-electric systems often lower capital and operating costs in Flagstaff modeling
Summary
A city-contracted study presented to the commission found ductless all-electric systems often show lower upfront capital costs and reduced operational expenses versus mixed-fuel and ducted-electric alternatives for many modeled scenarios; results vary by building type and equipment choice.
A consultant-led study presented to the commission summarized construction and operational cost modeling for mixed-fuel and all-electric homes in Flagstaff, using interviews with roughly a dozen local builders and illustrative building scenarios.
The analysis modeled several scenarios for single-family and multifamily configurations: a mixed-fuel base case (natural gas and electricity), ducted all-electric, ductless all-electric (mini-split heat pumps), and higher-efficiency variants of each. The study found that ductless all-electric systems frequently had the lowest capital costs because they avoid ductwork and associated labor, testing and materials; ducted all-electric systems could add several thousand dollars in upfront cost compared with the base case in illustrative examples.
For a larger single-family model (about 2,400—2,500 sq ft), the consultant presented illustrative averages: the base mixed-fuel example had a referenced capital cost baseline; a ducted all-electric variant added roughly $2,500 in the modeling, and adding higher-efficiency measures added roughly $8,000 above base-case costs. For a ~1,000 sq ft multifamily unit, ductless all-electric systems were often more cost-effective than mixed-fuel alternatives because of avoided ductwork and related installation costs.
Operational costs also varied by utility rate choice. The consultant pointed to APS time-of-use and demand-rate options that can materially influence household monthly bills; in several scenarios, more energy-efficient all-electric options yielded lower operating costs over time. The presenter emphasized the importance of matching equipment (for example, cold-climate heat pumps) and rate plans to local conditions.
Why it matters: the findings inform city policy discussions about electrification, energy codes and incentives by showing that equipment choice and efficiency levels materially affect both upfront and long-term costs for Flagstaff homes. The presenter noted broad variation by construction practice and cautioned figures are illustrative rather than prescriptive.
Next steps: staff and the commission signaled interest in further engagement with builders and potential program design to align electrification goals with affordability objectives; the city will continue outreach to local builders and refine policy options based on the study's findings.
