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Phoenix warns historic Colorado River lows could force major cuts starting in 2027; city leans on drought plan
Summary
City adviser Max Wilson told the parks board Phoenix gets about 40% of its water from the Colorado River and that federal rulemaking and continuing low flows could trigger very large cuts beginning in 2027. Phoenix is using storage, groundwater and a drought-management plan to prepare.
Max Wilson, the City of Phoenix's water resources management adviser, told the Parks and Recreation Board the city faces an unprecedented combination of low river flows and rising temperatures that threaten the Colorado River supplies that provide roughly 40% of Phoenix's daily water.
"We are looking at the lowest flow conditions on the Colorado River in at least 1,200 years," Wilson said, summarizing tree-ring and hydrology data. He said higher temperatures rather than reduced precipitation are reducing runoff and river flows, and that major reservoirs such as Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at critically low levels.
Wilson said the federal Bureau of Reclamation has declared shortages in recent years but its draft analyses suggest even larger cuts will be needed to stabilize the system: "their analysis shows we need to cut water demand 60% greater than previously anticipated," he said, citing a 2'4 million acre-foot shortfall scenario. For context, the Central Arizona Project typically carries about 1.5'1.6 million acre-feet.
The bureau's options, Wilson emphasized, were subjected to a federal National Environmental Policy Act review as part of the process to define operating rules that expire this year. He said Bureau staff concluded that under current legal authorities Central Arizona water users would likely be the first to face cuts; Phoenix disagrees with that interpretation and has submitted a detailed, roughly 150-page legal comment explaining alternate views of federal authority.
City officials do not expect the federal government to "make it rain" and said the federal role will be limited to setting limits on deliveries and other demand measures. Wilson said Phoenix has been in a stage one water alert since June 2022 and that the city's drought management plan authorizes the water services director to take actions to balance supply and demand, such as drawing more on groundwater storage and accelerating conservation outreach.
He described the drought pipeline and interconnections that allow Phoenix to shift supplies between the Salt/Verde system and parts of the city served by the Central Arizona Project, saying the pipeline is complete but that some legal limits remain on what SRP-tied waters can be moved.
Wilson outlined a rough federal timeline: an April snowpack assessment, a summer 2026 completion of the NEPA process for new operating guidelines, a Bureau 24-month study due in August 2026 that will estimate 2027 supplies, and the potential for very large cuts beginning in 2027. "I cannot tell you today what the size and scale of these cuts will be," he said, "but they will be very, very significant."
Board members asked about the trade-offs between turf irrigation and urban heat mitigation. Wilson said trees generally provide more cooling per gallon of water than turf, and stressed that careful placement and efficient irrigation can reduce tension between cooling and conservation goals.
The presentation closed with Wilson urging continued departmental and community planning: "we have backup supplies, storage, and a drought and shortage response team, but the choices we make now will determine how well Phoenix weathers large cuts if they come."
