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TMRPA director: region’s 20-year forecast shows roughly 95,000 new residents; water planning tied to housing needs
Summary
Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency director Jeremy Smith said TMRPA’s consensus forecast (averaging independent projections) places about 95,000 new residents in the region by 2044 — roughly 40,000 dwelling units — and that forecasts are coordinated with regional water bodies to confirm sustainable supply.
Jeremy Smith, director of the Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency, told listeners the agency uses a biennial “consensus forecast” to plan for long-term population change and infrastructure needs. "We take four independent sources of population forecasts and average them together to remove bias," he said, describing a 20-year outlook the agency updates every two years.
Smith said the most recent forecast in 2024 projected "about 95,000 people coming to the region by 2044," which the agency translates into roughly "40,000 dwelling units" to better inform land-use and infrastructure planning. He said TMRPA works with the Northern Nevada Water Planning Commission and the Western Regional Water Commission to ensure identified water resources can support that level of growth.
Assistant County Manager Dave Solero emphasized the practical uses of the forecast at the county level: it establishes targets for where housing should be accommodated and informs county infrastructure priorities. "We translate the population forecast into units so that we can actually take that target... and spread it onto the landscape in the areas where we have vacant land, the proper zoning, existing planned entitlements," he said.
Smith said TMRPA expects to update the forecast in 2026 and complete water‑planning checks through the summer with a final forecast in August or September. That timing, they said, drives planning for transportation, schools and utilities tied to proposed development.
The agency traces its authority to state statute (created in 1989), and Smith said a key regional role is ensuring master plans and large projects remain "in conformance with the regional plan." The forecast is a technical input used to test whether the region can accommodate future housing demand and maintain public services.
The podcast directed listeners to TMRPA materials online for details about the forecast methodology and to county mapping tools to see how residential targets are translated across jurisdictions. The episode closed with officials urging residents to consult available maps and planning documents when evaluating proposed projects.
