Pasco School District reports rebound in ninth-grade on-track rates; district ties credits and preschool to graduation probability

Superintendent Whitney presented the Pasco School District's final progress-monitoring report of the season, saying the district's on-track rate for ninth graders has recovered from a COVID-era dip and now stands at about 75.4% for the class of 2028.

Whitney said the district defines a student as "on track" if the student has earned six credits by the end of ninth grade, and she cautioned that the state Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) uses a different definition (failing no classes), so comparisons with state reports will differ. Whitney added that, by the district's analysis, the on-track rate for the class of 2028 represents a roughly 16.4 percentage-point increase since 2024 and is the highest on-track rate the district has recorded.

Why it matters: the board has set a goal that all students be on track for graduation; research and the district's local analysis link ninth-grade progress to eventual graduation rates, so changes in ninth-grade credits and proficiency have direct implications for student outcomes.

Whitney described a tiered significance model used to interpret year-to-year changes (yellow = directional, light green = emerging, dark green = clear, very dark green = very strong). She introduced a new data point for the board's monitoring: average credits earned per grading term through the end of ninth grade. Whitney reported the 2028 cohort earned on average 0.51 more credits by the end of ninth grade than the 2027 cohort, a gain the district judged "very strong" under its tiering system.

On probability of graduation, Whitney summarized in-district modeling showing that students who meet the district's on-track definition have about a 90% probability of graduating. She also told the board that a student with only two credits at the end of ninth grade still shows roughly a 0.5 probability of graduating in Pasco's data, reflecting district recovery systems that help off-track students return toward graduation.

The presentation covered assessment results as well. Whitney said STAR reading proficiency improved across most elementary and middle grades (grade 7 had the largest gain, about 15 percentage points), while mathematics results were mixed; the district expects recent math curriculum adoptions and targeted professional development to lift math scores over time.

Whitney also presented preschool-cohort analyses, reporting that most cohorts who attended preschool outperformed non-preschool peers in later grades. She cited a 23-percentage-point difference at third grade and referred to a large difference cited for eighth grade (51.3%), which the district marked as strong evidence of preschool impact.

Board members asked for more recent, trimester-level snapshots of the current cohort (for example, first-trimester and second-trimester credit counts) so they can better track progress during the school year; Whitney said staff would look into what more current data can be produced.

Whitney and staff also noted the district is studying schedule structures: a consultant will present May 26 on master schedules and whether moving from trimester to semester (or a different configuration) would be appropriate; any systemic change would be deliberate and likely at least a year away.

Next steps: staff will explore providing more recent trimester-level snapshots for board review and will return with details on scheduling analysis when the consultant presents.