Washoe County emergency team lays out evacuation study, modeling vendors and timelines

County emergency management presented a detailed update on a countywide evacuation study, describing a vendor-driven modeling program intended to produce more accurate evacuation zones, choke-point analysis and time estimates.

Kelly (Emergency Management Administrator) told the Incline Village Citizen Advisory Board that staff launched a public-input website, selected modeling vendors for separate fire and traffic analysis, and hired CNA to analyze results and update the evacuation plan. The study will pair sim-table fire behavior modeling with Perimeter traffic simulation and Placer AI historical population-flow data to test “worst-case” scenarios such as peak holiday events and rush-hour evacuations.

Why it matters: county staff said the existing plan contained time estimates and zone definitions that local stakeholders found inadequate in past incidents. The study’s purpose is to produce defensible time-to-clear estimates and to identify and mitigate choke points, not simply to redraw lines during an unfolding incident.

What officials said: Kelly described a multi-step process: collect public input, create draft evacuation zones with CAB and safety stakeholders, run 62 fire-start scenarios to examine fire behavior, and then run traffic models for each zone under worst-case population and timing. Kelly said CNA will vet Perimeter’s traffic outputs and adjust inputs where necessary (for example, avoiding equal distribution of hospital-origin vehicles across an entire zone when they originate from a single location).

Timing and disclosure: staff said the study aims to be completed by the end of June, after which CNA will lead an update to the county’s evacuation plan as an annex to the regional emergency operations plan. Kelly cautioned that some operational details will remain withheld from full public release for security reasons, citing applicable NRS protections; the study results that do not create security risks will be shared.

Communications, alerts and coverage gaps: residents repeatedly raised the vulnerability of alerting during outages after the Davis fire, noting cell towers lost power and Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) did not always reach visitors or residents. Kelly said the county has mapped tower ownership and is engaging carriers to confirm backup power arrangements; in the near term the county will continue to use multiple channels (WEA, television, radio and geo-fenced alerts) so that people without prior sign-up still receive life-safety messages.

Drills and special populations: staff said the plan update will be followed by testing and exercises — the FEMA cycle of plan-update, train, test and revise — and indicated an intent to coordinate school reunification exercises and to account for large numbers of visitors who may be on foot in public places (for example, at trailheads or events).

Next steps: the county will complete the modeling and analysis, share non-sensitive findings with stakeholders, then proceed to revise the formal evacuation plan and schedule exercises to test recommended mitigations. The CAB and other local stakeholders were asked to verify zone boundaries and to continue submitting local operational knowledge through the community input portal.