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Judges at Fed Challenge orientation stress teamwork, clear forecasts and narrative
Summary
Federal Reserve judges and staff told student competitors to prioritize teamwork, show how data leads to policy, and include forecasts plus explicit risk narratives; judges said Q&A performance and breadth of knowledge often decide close rounds.
Graham Long, director of curriculum and instruction at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, urged teams to structure presentations as a logical story that connects indicators to a monetary policy recommendation. "Let the data take you to the conclusion," he said, and added that a strong forecast combines numbers, narrative and risks: "a forecast is a set of numbers plus a narrative plus risks."
Long and a group of judges said judges evaluate four main elements in the rubric: analysis of current conditions, a near-term forecast, risks to that forecast, and a specific monetary policy recommendation. Judges at the orientation repeatedly emphasized that teams should show why they picked particular indicators or models when those sources diverge—for example, Long cited a prior snapshot where the New York Fed nowcast estimated GDP at 2.2% while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimated 5.6%.
Multiple judges said the teamwork element—distinct roles for members, evidence of collaboration and allowing multiple team members to participate in Q&A—is a key differentiator. Scott Olmacher, a senior economist at the Board of Governors, said judges prize teams that demonstrate coordinated contributions rather than a single dominant presenter; Martin Lel of the Chicago Fed said top teams often bring substantial research components or debates about policy paths.
Judges also advised practical presentation techniques: rehearse to avoid data or slide errors (judges can rewind videos), prioritize a small set of well-justified indicators rather than an overload of data, and, where possible, frame forecasts with both quantitative bands and a clear narrative about consequences.
Organizers and judges noted that video production value is not a scoring factor: teams should not be penalized for modest recording setups. The orientation closed with encouragement for students to consult the Federal Reserve’s Teal Book and Beige Book and recent Fed speeches to craft data-driven narratives.
