Wilmington MPO outlines $5.98 billion forecast and $7.9 billion shortfall in 2050 plan

Abby Lorenzo, deputy director of the Wilmington Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (WMPO), told the Wilmington City Council that the region’s newly adopted Metropolitan Transportation Plan looks ahead to 2050 and identifies a large funding shortfall between prioritized roadway needs and projected revenues.

The presentation, titled "Capefare Navigating Change 2050," detailed a development process that included more than three years of analysis and public outreach and produced a 25‑year roadmap and priority project list. "Our region will thrive and prosper through a fair and resilient transportation network that supports economic vitality while improving quality of life and place," Lorenzo said.

Lorenzo said the plan’s financial forecast estimates the WMPO region will receive approximately $5.98 billion in capital funding revenues for new project investments through 2050. The plan’s fiscal‑constraint analysis, she added, shows an estimated funding gap of about $7.9 billion between ranked roadway project needs and forecasted revenues. To close the gap, the WMPO board reviewed potential alternative funding sources including a quarter‑cent local option sales tax, vehicle registration fees and transportation bonds.

The WMPO emphasized that the MTP was developed through federal 3C planning (continuous, cooperative, comprehensive), two advisory committees (a technical steering committee and a citizen advisory committee), six public meetings, dozens of community events and thousands of public comments. Public input flagged current priorities — safety, cost and convenience — and a future desire for more walking, biking and transit options, Lorenzo said.

Lorenzo also described the plan’s goals (safe, fair, connected, resilient, proactive), modal objectives, and the prioritization process that produced a constrained list of roadway projects. She said aviation projects were excluded because Wilmington International Airport is pursuing its own capital program.

During council questions, members asked how a quarter‑cent sales tax would be implemented and whether it would require a county referendum. WMPO staff said the quarter‑cent local option sales tax would be administered at the county level and would require voter approval in the counties that adopt it; funds raised would generally need to be spent within the jurisdiction that collected them. Staff said agreements with the North Carolina Department of Transportation would be needed to apply local contributions to projects on state‑managed roads in unincorporated areas.

Council members asked for historical estimates of what the quarter‑cent option would have generated in prior years; WMPO staff offered to provide those numbers on request. The presentation closed with staff inviting member jurisdictions to integrate the MTP into local planning and to participate in WMPO programs as the organization begins work on the 2055 MTP in 2028.

The council did not take any recorded action on the MTP during this meeting. The WMPO plan and supporting materials are available on the WMPO website and in the plan appendix, which includes the data and tools used for analysis.