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WASDE: global wheat supplies tighten, world trade and ending stocks fall; USDA projects higher prices
Summary
The World Agricultural Outlook Board presented WASDE projections showing tighter global wheat supplies for 2026/27, reduced trade and ending stocks, and higher season-average prices for wheat and several other commodities; Brazil and North Africa were singled out for notable production shifts.
Mark Czekanowski, chair of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, told the briefing that the WASDE balance sheets point to tighter global supplies for the 2026/27 marketing year and upward price pressure for several commodities.
Czekanowski said the global wheat balance will tighten largely because of weaker U.S. production and lower production across many formerly record-year exporters; simultaneously, he said North Africa and parts of the Middle East are seeing near-ideal conditions and a roughly 4.9 million metric ton increase in production for that region. “We’re currently forecasting season average, market price for wheat, all wheat at dollars 6 and 50¢ per bushel, up a dollar 50 from this past year,” he said.
On rice, Czekanowski said global production is projected to decline for the first time in several years, with India down about 2,000,000 tons y/y; global rice trade for 2026/27 is projected near a record 63 million metric tons. For corn, the WASDE team expects global production for 2026/27 down roughly 17 million metric tons, led by a U.S. reduction, though still likely the second-largest on record; for corn the U.S. season-average price was described as supported by tighter supplies and forecast at about $4.40 per bushel.
The outlook for oilseeds included a larger 2026/27 soybean crop globally, driven in part by U.S. area and South American area growth; season-average soybean price for the new crop year was presented at $11.40 per bushel. On the livestock and dairy side, the briefing noted lower 2026 beef production (driven by lower marketings and slower feedlot placements) and continued strong competitive exports on a fat basis (cheese and butter), which has lifted certain product-price forecasts.
Czekanowski emphasized the tentative nature of out-year forecasts — many crops are not yet planted — and said WASDE incorporates NASS figures such as the May winter wheat forecast into the global balance sheets that are updated monthly.
