NASS October crop report: record U.S. soybean yield and 183.0 bu/acre corn forecast

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its October Crop Production report, forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield of 53.1 bushels per acre and projecting corn yield at 183.0 bushels per acre, NASS presenter Patrick Boyle said at the agency’s briefing.

Boyle, chief of the NASS Crop Reporting Services Branch, told attendees the agency’s estimates combine an operator yield survey of just over 7,500 farmers, objective field-sample measurements and laboratory analyses, satellite-based yield indications, and certified acreage from the Farm Service Agency (FSA). He said those FSA-certified acreage records are the primary driver of October acreage revisions for canola, dry edible beans and sunflowers.

Why it matters: NASS’s monthly crop production report is a principal federal economic indicator used by markets and policymakers. Record or near-record yields alter supply expectations, which influence export forecasts and domestic price outlooks.

Key findings reported by NASS:

- Corn: NASS reported 30% of the U.S. corn crop harvested as of Oct. 6. Planted and harvested acreage were unchanged from September but down just over 4% from 2023. The U.S. corn yield is forecast at 183.0 bu./acre (a record), up 0.1 bu./acre from September and up about 3.7% year-over-year, producing a projected 15.2 billion bushels in total production.

- Soybeans: As of Oct. 6, about 47% of soybeans were harvested, ahead of last year and the five-year average. Acreage was unchanged from September but higher than 2023. Soybean yield is forecast at a record 53.1 bu./acre (down slightly from September), with production projected at a record 4.58 billion bushels (roughly 10% above 2023).

- Cotton and other crops: Cotton harvest progress was reported at 26% complete; yield and production for cotton were down slightly month-to-month and year-to-year in several Southeastern states affected by storms, while Texas showed a month-to-month increase. Canola acreage and production were raised to record highs; dry edible beans acreage rose about 30% year-over-year; alfalfa yield is the highest since 2004; sunflower planted and harvested acreage are the lowest on record, pushing total sunflower production to the lowest level since 1976.

Methodology and caveats: Boyle emphasized the report’s multiple data streams: producer survey responses (the operator survey), objective yield samples (enumerators collecting field samples and lab processing), satellite remote sensing models in major production areas, and FSA certified acreage. He noted roughly 83% of the corn objective yield samples were processed by NASS’s laboratory this month and that objective-sample metrics (for example, ears per acre for corn and pods per 18 sq. ft. for soybeans) feed into yield forecasts.

Weather and timing note: Several Southeast storms (including Hurricane Helen and, more recently, Hurricane Milton) affected regions with crops still in the field. Boyle said the data were collected prior to some of the most recent storms, and NASS added a special note in the report explaining how storms affected collection and data quality; users should consult the published estimates and the special note for detailed locality impacts.

Next steps and outreach: NASS will host a social media Stat Chat at 1:00 p.m. Eastern to take questions, and the agency reminded users to rely on the official published estimates if any discrepancy appears between the briefing and the released tables. Upcoming NASS products listed at the briefing include special census reports Oct. 17 and 31, rice stocks on Oct. 23, and the November crop production and cotton ginnings reports on Nov. 1.

The briefing concluded with NASS encouraging data users to review the report’s methodology notes and the FSA-certified acreage information that underpins October revisions.